{"id":816,"date":"2026-09-11T10:09:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T10:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816"},"modified":"2026-09-11T10:09:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T10:09:19","slug":"trumps-disastrous-reign-will-cost-you-more-than-5000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n

The Republican Party is looking down the barrel of a potentially catastrophic midterm wipeout, and Donald Trump is up to his usual tricks: dishonest promises of future bribes. At the recent Republican Party convention-type proceeding, he promised that should the American people vote in a Republican Congress, they would give every adult U.S. citizen\u2014all roughly 260 million of them\u2014$5,000.<\/p>\n

Read more Data Center of Attention<\/a><\/p>\n

As an initial matter, this is arguably illegal. In contrast to a politician promising to implement some policy should they be elected\u2014a policy Republicans could implement right now, since they control Congress and the White House\u2014Trump is saying he will cut a fat check to voters if and only if they vote how he wants. I\u2019d call that a promised expenditure to influence voting if I\u2019ve ever seen one.<\/p>\n

More from Ryan Cooper<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But perhaps we\u2019re overthinking this promise, because it is manifestly not going to happen. Not only has the president already suggested large payments to Americans on 15 different occasions since taking office in 2025 (by Groundwork Collaborative\u2019s count) without any follow-through, but breaking vows to pay someone is practically Donald Trump\u2019s life\u2019s work, the only thing he holds sacred. In any case, it would cost about $1.3 trillion, or about a quarter of the entire federal government budget, something no Republican Congress is going to support.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s break with reality and suppose that Trump actually follows through on a promised payment for the first time in his life. There\u2019s another problem: Trump\u2019s second term has already been such an epic disaster that he is virtually guaranteed to have cost<\/em> the average American more than $5,000. The Trump check that isn\u2019t coming wouldn\u2019t even get us back to square one. It probably wouldn\u2019t even get you halfway.<\/p>\n

Let me start with Trump\u2019s madcap war on Iran. As I have suspected from the war\u2019s earliest days, he has been totally unable to negotiate an end to the conflict. We\u2019ve been stuck in a cycle of Trump loudly lying that a deal is imminent to juice the markets (and allow someone with administration connections to make huge profits by insider trading), the deal falling through, and a resumption of shooting. Now The Wall Street Journal<\/em> reports that, contrary to the president\u2019s claim that the war will end \u201cimmediately\u201d after the midterms, his top advisers are starting to face the strong possibility that the war will continue until the end of his term. And that\u2019s a strong bet. If I were Iran, I would do to Trump the exact same thing I did to President Carter in 1980.<\/p>\n

The war has substantially increased the cost of oil; refined fuels are up even more. Brown University\u2019s Climate Solutions Lab has set up an Iran war cost tracker for gas and diesel, which estimates that the war has cost the American people $103 billion in higher fuels costs at time of writing, or roughly $500 million per day on average.<\/p>\n

Predicting that daily figure will hold until January 20, 2029, is arguably optimistic at this point. Oil recently soared past $105 per barrel at time of writing, and diesel has cracked $6 per gallon nationally, a new record. In parts of California, diesel has reached $9.999\u2014the highest price most stations can display, at least for the moment. Further increases are quite possible. China might restart its imports, which it has hitherto cut drastically for unclear reasons. Iran might decide to cut off what little is getting through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Indeed, just before the drafting of this article, Iran-backed Houthi forces seized control of the port of Mocha, just a few miles north of the Red Sea side of the Bab-al-Mandeb strait. If they close off that<\/em> ocean passageway, then Saudi Arabia will no longer be able to export to Asia through its pipeline to the port at Yanbu, erasing another four to five million barrels per day in production. While all this damage may permanently lower oil demand as the world seeks other power solutions, that process to the energy future is sure to be slow and grinding and painful, especially given Trump\u2019s affinity for Big Oil.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s be conservative and say Americans will be paying $600 million per day in additional fuel costs through the rest of Trump\u2019s term, for a total of about $620 billion.<\/p>\n

Then there is the direct military cost. The military is burning through much of its stockpile of precision-guided munitions and interceptors, which typically take weeks or months of time and millions of dollars to produce. Many advanced fighters, bombers, drones, and surveillance planes have been destroyed. Most of the bases around the Persian Gulf have been heavily damaged if not abandoned outright. The Navy is being run ragged, with stir-crazy and underfed sailors attempting to hurl themselves into the sea and ships coming back dripping with rust. Likely hundreds of billions in rearmament, repairs, and refitting are already locked in.<\/p>\n

Read more Why OpenAI Hired Chuck Schumer\u2019s Daughter Away From Amazon<\/a><\/p>\n

Back in April, budget expert Linda Bilmes told the Harvard Kennedy School that the war is costing $2 billion a day. That may end up being an overestimate in terms of munitions simply because the military will run out of all its top-end stuff before Trump\u2019s term is up, and American destroyers will have to be fitted with trebuchets. On the other hand, all that will presumably need to be replaced, and we\u2019re also locking in hundreds of billions in VA spending due to all the injured troops.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s be conservative again and say the average cost will be $1.5 billion per day on average through the rest of Trump\u2019s term, for a total of $1.5 trillion in military costs, or a running total of $2.12 trillion. We\u2019ve already blown past Trump\u2019s phantom $5,000 payments by about $3,000.<\/p>\n

But wait, I haven\u2019t counted the tariffs! The Tax Foundation estimates that Trump\u2019s tariffs cost the American people about $130 billion last year and will cost another $100 billion this year. Let\u2019s call it another $200 billion for the last two years of his term, for a total tariff cost of $430 billion, and a running total of $2.55 trillion.<\/p>\n

Then there are interest costs. Interest rates are high, as are government interest payments\u2014currently running at $1.2 trillion per year, or more than the entire defense budget. Economist Paul Krugman argues that the high rates are principally driven by the enormous AI build-out, but surely Trump\u2019s huge tax cut for the rich driving more government borrowing, and the way in which his price-increasing tariffs have helped prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, have had some effect. So let\u2019s tack on another $112 billion per year, for a nice round total of $3 trillion. That\u2019s about $11,500 per adult U.S. citizen flushed straight down Trump\u2019s golden toilet.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s before you get to the impact of the cost of money on American pocketbooks, in the form of higher interest rates for mortgages and cars and private loans. This is probably good for another few hundred billion over Trump\u2019s four-year reign.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll admit this is on the rough side even for a napkin-sketch estimate. But there are many other factors I haven\u2019t considered. There is how high diesel costs will get passed on to anyone who buys shipped goods. There are higher electricity costs thanks to Trump canceling so many renewable-energy projects. There is lower growth because of his idiotic tariffs and associated uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Much worse possibilities could be imagined. Iran could take out an aircraft carrier, or the war could tip the economy into a recession, or Trump might start another shooting war with Europe over Greenland.<\/p>\n

The point is that a $5,000 check wouldn\u2019t cover the damage every adult has felt. Just the direct costs of energy and tariffs and interest rates are well over $1 trillion, and then there are the federal debt service and budget costs that will eventually show up as either higher taxes or reduced social spending.<\/p>\n

Whatever happens, I hope the voters that broke for Trump in 2024 because they were outraged at higher prices are satisfied with how things are going.<\/p>\n

Read more What You Missed by Not Watching Trump Last Night<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


\n
\n
\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The war in Iran alone could easily cost more than $2 trillion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":815,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[402],"class_list":["post-816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-policy","tag-tagged-donald-trump-economic-policy-energy-the-environment-iran-middle-east-military-politics-tariffs"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000 - Frontier Housing Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000 - Frontier Housing Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The war in Iran alone could easily cost more than $2 trillion.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Frontier Housing Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-11T10:09:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247\"},\"headline\":\"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-11T10:09:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816\"},\"wordCount\":1394,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp\",\"keywords\":[\"Tagged: Donald Trump,\u00a0Economic Policy,\u00a0Energy & the Environment,\u00a0Iran,\u00a0Middle East,\u00a0military,\u00a0Politics,\u00a0tariffs\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economic Policy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816\",\"name\":\"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000 - Frontier Housing Report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-11T10:09:19+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":1333},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=816#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Frontier Housing Report\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000 - Frontier Housing Report","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000 - Frontier Housing Report","og_description":"The war in Iran alone could easily cost more than $2 trillion.","og_url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816","og_site_name":"Frontier Housing Report","article_published_time":"2026-09-11T10:09:19+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#\/schema\/person\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247"},"headline":"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000","datePublished":"2026-09-11T10:09:19+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816"},"wordCount":1394,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp","keywords":["Tagged: Donald Trump,\u00a0Economic Policy,\u00a0Energy & the Environment,\u00a0Iran,\u00a0Middle East,\u00a0military,\u00a0Politics,\u00a0tariffs"],"articleSection":["Economic Policy"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816","url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816","name":"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000 - Frontier Housing Report","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp","datePublished":"2026-09-11T10:09:19+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#\/schema\/person\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/a658bc33ec09af8006b441c9c04802bb.webp","width":2000,"height":1333},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=816#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Trump\u2019s Disastrous Reign Will Cost You More Than $5,000"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/","name":"Frontier Housing Report","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#\/schema\/person\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com"],"url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/816","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=816"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/816\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=816"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=816"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=816"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}