{"id":696,"date":"2026-08-24T09:36:58","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:36:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=696"},"modified":"2026-08-24T09:36:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:36:58","slug":"the-best-protection-against-financial-crises-is-being-destroyed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=696","title":{"rendered":"The Best Protection Against Financial Crises Is Being Destroyed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Arguably the most important and effective of the financial reforms passed after the 2008 financial crisis were restrictions on bank borrowing called \u201ccapital requirements.\u201d These were a key part of the Dodd-Frank Act, as well as the Basel III international standards that govern the global banking system. Capital requirement rules increased the amount of money from shareholders banks were required to use, through equity capital, to fund their lending activities instead of debt. The reason why is obvious: The more a company is indebted, the smaller a loss it takes to bankrupt it. For instance, Bear Stearns, the holding company whose failure helped kick off the financial crisis, had about $395 billion in assets backed by just $12 billion in equity.<\/p>\n

Read more Why Scott Bessent Can\u2019t Fix the Bond Market<\/a><\/p>\n

More from Eleanor Davis-Diver<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The problem for Wall Street is that decreased risk means decreased profits. So ever since those increased safeguards went up, banking interests\u2014fresh off a $700 billion taxpayer bailout\u2014have engaged in a relentless campaign to bring them back down again. The bankers, desperate to drive up profit and return more money to their shareholders, have fought back at every step of the way as regulators worked to implement international standards and U.S. law.<\/p>\n

Now it appears that the banks are going to get what they have long wanted. Federal regulators in the Trump administration are preparing to finalize a set of rules proposed in March that will lower capital requirements even further than years of government capitulation had already given the banks. All amidst a wide-scale deregulatory agenda extending beyond capital requirements, introducing even more layers of risk\u2014and at a time when general financial risk is increasing all over the place.<\/p>\n

The war in Iran has increased energy costs and caused all manner of chaos in commodities markets, and it might escalate into a regional conflict that blocks the Bab-al-Mandeb strait out of the Red Sea, too. The strongest El Ni\u00f1o in history is likely building, adding extreme weather risk. The market for U.S. government bonds, hitherto considered the safest in the world, is markedly unstable, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent\u2019s antics are only making things worse. Most unsettlingly, cracks are beginning to appear in the AI bubble that has whipped much of Wall Street into a frenzy of risky lending this summer. Whenever the rickety tower of debt propping up AI-related spending begins to topple, the security of the world\u2019s largest banks\u2014banks designated Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs)\u2014will be essential in limiting the spread of a deadly economic contagion.<\/p>\n

The main argument for rolling back capital requirements heard from bankers and bank-friendly regulators fresh off a job working for banks, despite the systemic risks attached, is that it will lead to more lending in communities and propel economic growth. \u201cIt is simply requiring more capital on the sidelines,\u201d Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) said of heightened capital requirements in an oversight hearing of Wall Street firms, \u201cwhich then means fewer dollars to lend to small businesses, first-time homebuyers, car loans. So the actual impact of a higher regulatory standard is fewer dollars to lend to Americans.\u201d He paints a picture in which capital requirements mean more money pointlessly sitting in bank accounts that could be put to work creating jobs.<\/p>\n

Now, it\u2019s clear that the Trump administration doesn\u2019t actually care about helping banks lend more to American communities\u2014they\u2019ve worked tirelessly to dismantle and defund the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund created for that very purpose\u2014but the argument itself is rooted in a gross misrepresentation of how capital requirements really work, according to Stephen Cecchetti, the Rosen Family Chair in International Finance at the Brandeis International Business School.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bankers are smart and their lobbyists are very smart,\u201d he told the Prospect<\/em>. \u201cSo the first thing is they get you to use the term \u2018hold capital,\u2019 which you should not use.\u201d<\/p>\n

The language used by Sen. Scott and other policymakers and regulators who advocate for limited capital requirements makes it seem like bank capital is sitting idle on the sidelines, but that\u2019s wrong. \u201cCapital is a funding source, it\u2019s not an asset,\u201d Cecchetti said. Capital requirements are simply the amount of lending that banks are required to fund with equity capital\u2014money from the bank\u2019s shareholders\u2014instead of debt. That money isn\u2019t sitting idle, and in fact, it\u2019s contributing to the bank\u2019s lending. In other words, the requirements change who is funding loans and bearing risk, not the quantity of lending.<\/p>\n

Other arguments as to why higher capital requirements stifle lending and economic growth\u2014equity is more expensive than debt, for example, and the requirements do impose a ceiling on the amount of debt banks can take on to then lend out, determined by their access to capital\u2014could possibly be true if the banks behave the way they claim to. But they don\u2019t. In fact, when post-2008 regulations pushed capital requirements up, the banking sector\u2019s share of lending increased right along with them.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThere\u2019s no evidence at all anywhere that I\u2019ve ever seen that raising capital requirements does anything except making banks more resilient and makes banks more willing to lend to good borrowers,\u201d Cecchetti says. Stronger banks can borrow money more cheaply, and make better decisions that ultimately lead to higher lending and more secure financial institutions.<\/p>\n

But banks aren\u2019t interested in becoming more resilient; they\u2019re interested in making money for their shareholders. Lower capital requirements means banks can take more risk with less shareholder money on the line, which means more profit if things go well. And if they don\u2019t, well, the government can just bail them out.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re always gonna argue for lower capital requirements,\u201d said Cecchetti. \u201cAnd this is especially true of the biggest banks, because they know for sure that they aren\u2019t gonna be allowed to fail. So they\u2019re just trying to maximize the subsidy that they\u2019re getting from the government, and from the public. They\u2019re trying to put the risk onto us, not onto their equity holders.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even more important, with less capital backing up the bank\u2019s lending, that money can go right back into the pockets of the shareholders, according to Cecchetti. \u201cWhat happens when you reduce capital requirements is [banks] increase dividends and they increase stock buybacks.\u201d That\u2019s the opposite of more community lending.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the ballgame here,\u201d said Oscar Vald\u00e9s Viera, senior policy analyst for capital markets with Americans for Financial Reform. \u201cThis is all about freeing capital to be returned to their shareholders.\u201d<\/p>\n

BANKS AND THEIR SHAREHOLDERS<\/strong>, like all companies, prefer share buybacks because they increase the share price and the tax burdens on capital gains are lower than the income tax shareholders pay on dividends. (So, if the bank needs a taxpayer bailout after reducing capital levels, less of that taxpayer money will be from the bank owners profiting off the risk.)<\/p>\n

The relationship between capital requirements and buybacks can be seen again and again throughout the banking lobby\u2019s campaign to limit the impact of Basel III safeguards on their balance sheets.<\/p>\n

During the first Trump administration, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gifted banks with a major rollback of financial regulation that lowered their capital burden. In turn, banks gifted their shareholders with an explosion of stock buybacks. But as capital requirements tightened under Joe Biden\u2019s choice to be the Fed\u2019s vice chair for supervision, Michael Barr, in 2022 and 2023, buyback numbers contracted again.<\/p>\n

Read more That Stunning Florida Senate Win<\/a><\/p>\n

Then in 2024, major banks waged a successful campaign to pressure the Fed into rescinding that proposal and implementing new, looser rules. The campaign even extended to Sunday Night Football ads funded by the dark-money group Center Forward. Banks, which had already increased buybacks that summer after sailing through an annual stress test, a simulation that essentially runs a bank\u2019s books through fake crisis scenarios to ensure enough capital would survive, breathed a sigh of relief and prepared to maintain higher buyback programs.<\/p>\n

Once the new vice chair for supervision at the Fed, Michelle Bowman\u2014elevated by Trump thanks to her escalating deregulatory rhetoric during the Biden years\u2014began seriously hinting at again reducing capital levels last November, major banks responded by ramping up their buyback programs to line shareholder pockets.<\/p>\n

One of those shareholders was Donald Trump, who spent the previous five months buying up millions of dollars of bank securities\u2014a buying spree only revealed to the public months later in a late ethics filing\u2014many of which belonged to some of the nation\u2019s biggest banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo. While the filing only lists broad ranges, the total value of the transactions could be more than $20 million, according to Sludge. And, it appears, nearly all of the purchases were specifically the type of security that banks use to satisfy capital requirements, like preferred shares or similar instruments.<\/p>\n

Another buying spree of bank securities reported in a later ethics filing happened in the months leading up to the actual release of the proposals in March, which includes a reduction in the surcharge placed on G-SIBs to limit the possibility of \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d banks failing. Bankers reacted to that release by, again, discussing plans to ramp up buyback programs.<\/p>\n

Another target of the Fed\u2019s regulatory changes under Bowman has been the aforementioned stress tests. While the banks made it through the stress test this year, it wouldn\u2019t have mattered. The agency is implementing a new stress testing proposal, and the buffers that would typically be determined by the last test results have been left untouched.<\/p>\n

Instead, the new proposal opens the models and crisis scenarios, which have historically been kept confidential to prevent gaming, to bank feedback before the test happens. \u201cThey\u2019re essentially giving the banks the answers to tests,\u201d said Viera. With the test answers in hand, the banks will be able to ace the test while obscuring the real risk on their books. \u201cIt\u2019s just gonna end up in a place where banks are gonna free up a lot more capital.\u201d<\/p>\n

Higher stock buybacks also tend to lead to an increase in compensation and bonuses for top executives, separate from any direct stake in the bank\u2019s equity.<\/p>\n

THE WIDESPREAD REDUCTION IN CAPITAL<\/strong>\u2014beyond what the bank lobby has already pulled off in the last decade\u2014is only one part of a larger story. The second Trump administration continues to implement countless deregulatory proposals, all posing their own unique threat to the stability of the financial system. \u201cYou cannot examine these proposals on their own,\u201d Viera told the Prospect<\/em>. \u201cTheir effect is going to be larger than the sum of their individual parts.\u201d<\/p>\n

For example, one of the biggest concerns when banks use less capital to fund lending is that they start to make loans to riskier borrowers, because less of the bank\u2019s own money is at stake, and more of the risk falls on their depositors and lenders instead. \u201cBanks with lots of capital have an incentive to screen and monitor their borrowers more intensively,\u201d explained Cecchetti.<\/p>\n

Pair this with a new rule from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and FDIC preventing regulators from stepping in when banks do business with a client that could pose a \u201creputational risk\u201d not based on traditional measures of risk to financial stability, and things start looking pretty shaky. Reputational risks have historically been considered as a stand-alone supervisory risk category that works to encourage banks to seek out and prevent potential threats that might not be apparent at first blush, or else face intervention from the OCC and FDIC.<\/p>\n

With a reduced incentive to screen borrowers and regulatory agencies handcuffed by reputational risk rules, a myriad of potential dangers could be lurking in the shadows of bank balance sheets.<\/p>\n

The reputation risk rulemakings came in response to Trump\u2019s crusade against a that both MAGA and the crypto world have both been obsessing over for years called \u201cdebanking.\u201d The two groups\u2014which overlap quite a bit\u2014often claim they have been shut out of the traditional banking world because of political persecution. In reality, virtually every time such people have actually been kept out of the banking system it is because the relevant individuals or companies are not following American laws and rules regarding fraud, money laundering, material support for terrorism, \u201cknow your customer,\u201d and so on. Crypto itself also carries a risk of extreme market volatility that rightfully made some banks wary.<\/p>\n

These same agencies are also gladly opening the doors to crypto risk with their implementation of legislation Congress passed last year to introduce lightly regulated stablecoin to the traditional financial system. The OCC last month began finalizing trust bank charters for stablecoin issuers beginning with Circle, a key player in the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Trump\u2019s own crypto firm, World Liberty Financial, just received its conditional charter from the agency. The charters grant crypto firms the rights to many of the same activities as traditional banks with only a sliver of the regulatory requirements and oversight.<\/p>\n

Funnily enough, the stablecoin rulemaking came despite the protests of Wall Street, whose hold over the Trump administration is no match for the crypto lobby. But no matter who it\u2019s for, or how it lines the president\u2019s pockets, the one through line running throughout the last year and a half of federal financial regulation has been a rapid acceleration of the deregulatory trend already started during Trump\u2019s first term under Powell.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis administration is just a lot more radical, and staffed by more radical people than the first one,\u201d Viera said. \u201cNow [Powell\u2019s] not good enough for Trump. Now he\u2019s not radical enough for Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe history of bank regulation in the United States is of progressive dilutions of core regulatory requirements over a number of years, leaving the banking system as a whole vulnerable to crisis,\u201d warned former British central banker Paul Tucker in a 2018 letter to the Senate Banking Committee. With Trump 2.0\u2019s radical regulators in the driver\u2019s seat, the core regulatory requirements aren\u2019t being diluted anymore so much as completely washed away.<\/p>\n

Read more Top Pentagon Official Contracted Personal Lawyer to Handle Pentagon Minerals Deal<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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When Wall Street blew up the economy, they were forced to cut back on risky borrowing. 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