{"id":558,"date":"2026-08-04T09:37:47","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T09:37:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=558"},"modified":"2026-08-04T09:37:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T09:37:47","slug":"the-michigan-revolution-is-about-old-fashioned-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=558","title":{"rendered":"The Michigan Revolution Is About Old-Fashioned Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"
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There are a lot of interesting primary races today. In St. Louis, Cori Bush may return to Congress if she can make it past millions of dollars in negative ads and vanquish Rep. Wesley Bell in a rematch. The Kansas governor\u2019s race has become a referendum on a tax break given to data center developers last year. There aren\u2019t really any primaries in question in Virginia, but the margins will be worth looking at in a state with multiple Democratic takeover attempts expected in the fall. And in Seattle, socialist former city council member Kshama Sawant is running against Rep. Adam Smith in a primary, but given the top-two format, nothing will be determined today.<\/p>\n

Read more Ted Lasso Is Back, but Is His Moment Over?<\/a><\/p>\n

More from David Dayen<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But none of these possess the importance of the Michigan primary, where available polling and reports from the ground foretell victories for Abdul El-Sayed and Will Lawrence. El-Sayed is running for Senate in the swing state; Lawrence in the toss-up Seventh Congressional District. Both are progressives who, if the ground reports are true, are poised to defeat centrist opponents. And these prospects are completely freaking out the centrist wing of the Democratic Party, as we\u2019ve reported.<\/p>\n

Despite over $60 million in advertising\u2014half of that from AIPAC\u2019s super PAC United Democracy Project\u2014outside groups can\u2019t seem to make enough Michigan Democrats love El Sayed\u2019s opponent, Haley Stevens. And despite lots of outside money for Lawrence\u2019s opponents and millions of dollars in somewhat clumsy attack ads against him, even polls from entities supporting his opponents show Lawrence in front.<\/p>\n

Fellow Michigan Democrat Rep. Hillary Scholten is openly saying she would never support El-Sayed, putting the \u201cblue no matter who\u201d conversation squarely on the other foot. Other operatives have despaired over Lawrence, claiming that \u201cthis race is 100% off the table now if Lawrence wins.\u201d The sitting governor (Democrat Gretchen Whitmer) and one senator (outgoing Democrat Gary Peters) went all in for Stevens, while the other senator (Democrat Elissa Slotkin) endorsed Matt Maasdam, one of Lawrence\u2019s two major opponents. This broke some unwritten rules in state politics, and reflected the establishment\u2019s urgent push to keep primary elections within their control.<\/p>\n

The fearmongering over what may happen in these critical races three months from now has dwarfed any kind of introspection over what has already happened leading up to today. El-Sayed, Lawrence, and also Donavan McKinney, a Detroit-area state legislator who may vanquish Rep. Shri Thanedar in a primary tonight, have put themselves in this position through outworking their opponents, finding issues that resonate broadly, and energizing the party base of volunteers and donors. They have run the kinds of campaigns that are essential to making the Democratic Party able to win anywhere.<\/p>\n

Some Democrats have figured this out. Asked about their plans come November for the Seventh District, in which Lawrence is favored to become the nominee, House Majority PAC communications director CJ Warnke called it \u201cone of the most competitive seats on the map\u201d and said that House Majority PAC \u201cplans to support the Democratic nominee and flip this district blue in November.\u201d Katie Smith of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee echoed Warnke, saying that \u201cthis toss-up race will be a referendum on Tom Barrett\u2019s record of broken promises.\u201d Other Democratic operatives praised Lawrence for being able to mobilize voters and build an impressive volunteer base.<\/p>\n

By contrast, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (which has already run ads against likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race) and the Senate Majority PAC, the two main party establishment campaign arms for Senate races, did not respond to multiple requests for comment. (For what it\u2019s worth, even Stevens, and current Sen. Gary Peters, whose retirement created the vacancy, have said they would support El-Sayed.)<\/p>\n

BOTH EL-SAYED AND LAWRENCE<\/strong> entered a multicandidate field without the natural advantages of incumbency, running against a tide of conventional wisdom that says progressives cannot compete as well as moderates in toss-up seats. But they also had a lot of positives in common. El-Sayed was the only candidate in his race who had run statewide; Lawrence was the only candidate with a history in his district, as his two more establishment challengers either lived outside of Lansing or spent most of their professional lives outside of Michigan.<\/p>\n

Their opponents focused on positioning and arguing for who is the most electable. In our age, where everyone styles themselves a pundit, that has become a powerful enough message to break through in Democratic primaries. But El-Sayed and Lawrence focused on what would actually energize the voters determining their fate.<\/p>\n

Read more Seth Moulton\u2019s Sweetheart Deals<\/a><\/p>\n

A lot of El-Sayed\u2019s early campaign spots talked about corporate monopolies. He then foregrounded the war in Gaza, an issue where voters have rapidly moved toward his position and where the massive spending by United Democracy Project reinforced his points about the scourge of outside money as well as the role of Israel-Palestine policy. And his oft-repeated slogan\u2014something he learned from his 2018 gubernatorial primary was necessary\u2014of \u201cmoney out of politics, money in your pocket, and Medicare for All\u201d displayed his commitment to strong core principles in line with voter concerns.<\/p>\n

El-Sayed also built a high-profile policy proposal around something that is also a vital piece of Lawrence\u2019s platform: data centers. Lawrence\u2019s main ad in the race featured a data center fight in his district. The issue has become so central to his campaign that when people were asked in a focus group what they think about when they think of Will Lawrence, data centers came out on top. He has effectively defined himself as the anti\u2013data center candidate, which as a synecdoche for taking government back from oligarchical forces is a pretty good position to take.<\/p>\n

It also has significant cross-partisan appeal in a nod to the general election. When Donald Trump visited the district last week, a data center protest broke out in the middle of his speech. Lawrence has courted Trump voters over the issue, received Republican endorsements, and inspired unusual loyalty among people otherwise aligned with MAGA.<\/p>\n

In an anti-system election, data centers have become a uniting message that also undercuts the establishment. When El-Sayed made remarks at a data center site being developed in Saline Township last week, it was the same project that Whitmer touted at a groundbreaking ceremony a year ago. The topic can resolve voters\u2019 questions about whom candidates stand with\u2014which side they\u2019re on.<\/p>\n

Both El-Sayed and Lawrence have amassed significant grassroots organizational support in their campaigns, well beyond the ground games of their opponents. And they are rather generously running almost as a slate, not only with each other but with other candidates and organizations in the region. El-Sayed put out a fundraising ask for Lawrence during the last week before the primary, when he certainly could have asked for more money for his own campaign to combat the $60 million onslaught he\u2019s facing. The two have cross-endorsed with McKinney and appeared at online events together. And Lawrence spent his final days walking across Lansing to raise money for local tenant rights and community organizations.<\/p>\n

There will be other explanations for tonight\u2019s results if El-Sayed and Lawrence are victorious; Lawrence got late support from a Republican PAC, showing that the conventional wisdom about progressives and swing seats spans both parties. But the clear visions of their campaigns, their stands on the issues that matter, and their ability to inspire are a million miles away from a relatively empty moderate message. Progressives ran campaigns on issues that mattered to voters, while their opponents fell back on old electability arguments. We\u2019ll see who wins today, but the signs point to voters wanting to be proud to vote for something.<\/p>\n

Obviously, how this plays out in November will fuel weeks\u2019 worth of factional arguments. But it\u2019s at least a little surprising how the Democrats saying they are the most serious about winning in November aren\u2019t willing to put in the time or learn any lessons about how to get to November.<\/p>\n

Read more TSA Privatization Returns Airport Security to a Dangerous Past<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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Progressives like Abdul El-Sayed and Will Lawrence are running solid races. Moderates have fallen back on old arguments. 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