{"id":334,"date":"2026-07-01T09:38:44","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T09:38:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=334"},"modified":"2026-07-01T09:38:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T09:38:44","slug":"will-lawrence-is-upending-conventional-wisdom-on-how-to-win-congressional-districts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=334","title":{"rendered":"Will Lawrence Is Upending Conventional Wisdom on How to Win Congressional Districts"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Lurking in the background of the midterms is a potential political realignment sparked by protests over data centers. Wall Street is resetting its forecasts for AI valuations and capital expenditures because of local data center opposition, from the Virginia suburbs to the Utah plains. And it\u2019s bleeding into the political arena. Some officials have already lost their elections over approving data center construction or even for failing to stop it, and more are threatened in the fall. When Greg Abbott\u2014that<\/em> Greg Abbott\u2014is making proposals for stronger regulations, you know that the data center issue just hits different.<\/p>\n

Read more Public-Health Officials Cross Their Fingers During World Cup<\/a><\/p>\n

But among several candidates who have talked to me about the increasingly pivotal role data centers are playing in their elections, nobody had quite articulated the meaning behind the grassroots pushback until I heard from Will Lawrence, a progressive running for Congress in Michigan\u2019s Seventh Congressional District, a swing seat in the Lansing area.<\/p>\n

More from David Dayen<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Lawrence, a former climate and affordable-housing organizer, said that data centers were the most salient issue in his district, or at least the one with the most intensity of opinion. And he acknowledged the basic quality-of-life issues involved, like the impact on energy and water bills, noise pollution, and bright lights at all hours. But, he added, there was something more.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s also about who decides the future of our communities,\u201d he said in an interview. \u201cWe have the richest companies in the world coming in, signing elected officials into nondisclosure agreements, with PR agents and lawyers telling everybody how good of a deal it\u2019s going to be \u2026 They say, \u2018This is the way of progress. And you need to engage in shared sacrifice for the common good.\u2019 And we say, \u2018What common good? The benefits of the development have gone to the one percent!\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

In other words, the data center question is really about the same dynamics of money and power that have led the public to (correctly) believe that government doesn\u2019t listen to their concerns. The cause unites Republicans and Democrats and independents under the rather American message of standing up for the little guy.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why Lawrence is highlighting data centers in his first ad of the primary, which was released yesterday. The ad features a homeowner named Randy Cantu from Mason, Michigan, a small town supporting a property owner\u2019s request to annex 400 acres of farmland in nearby Vevay Township for a proposed hyperscale data center project. The Vevay Township board, after a fiery public meeting that brought out hundreds of people in a town of around 3,000, rejected entering negotiations with Mason to transfer the plot of land as part of a shared economic development agreement.<\/p>\n

Lawrence, who spoke at that meeting, says in the ad, \u201cI\u2019m running for U.S. Congress because I\u2019ve never been afraid to stand up to corporate power.\u201d Cantu agrees. \u201cWill Lawrence isn\u2019t going to let us be bullied by big corporations.\u201d<\/p>\n

THAT LAWRENCE IS LEADING<\/strong> the August 4 Democratic primary for Michigan\u2019s Seventh, a district formerly held by centrist Sen. Elissa Slotkin and currently in the hands of Republican Tom Barrett, might surprise some people. But he has been on top in most available polls, including in an internal poll from one of his two Democratic primary opponents, ex-Navy SEAL and business executive Matt Maasdam. A sponsored by his other opponent, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, has her so far out in front that it feels like an outlier.<\/p>\n

To some campaign organizers and observers, Lawrence\u2019s lack of fit into the typical swing-seat candidate box is actually the reason he\u2019s winning. \u201cThis is the year to prove the point that bold economic populists can win in swing districts,\u201d said Adam Green of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which has endorsed Lawrence. \u201cWill shatters the conventional wisdom that we need a Slotkin to win.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lawrence\u2019s background has been on the outside of the halls of power. \u201cI started out as a grassroots organizer,\u201d he told me. \u201cThe Democratic Party was where social movements go to die.\u201d But Bernie Sanders\u2019s campaign in 2016 triggered his re-evaluation of how mass political movements can reach people.<\/p>\n

He became co-founder and director of strategic partnerships at the Sunrise Movement, building the bottom-up coalition for a Green New Deal. He later organized the Michigan Rent is Too Damn High coalition, which in 2024 got a ban on housing discrimination based on sources of income, like HUD or VA vouchers, through the state legislature. The coalition also secured hundreds of millions of dollars in housing investments, and Lawrence got appointed to a housing trust fund in Ingham County that allocated that money.<\/p>\n

The Inflation Reduction Act didn\u2019t fully realize the promise of green industrial policy and now is in tatters. And Michigan housing wins were offset by unrealized goals. During these fights, Lawrence said he learned how swing districts like MI-07 were held up as resisting any such big changes.<\/p>\n

\u201cI saw the way that corporate interests on Capitol Hill talk about districts like mine,\u201d he said. \u201cWe can\u2019t have housing money because purple districts and swing voters don\u2019t want that \u2026 That\u2019s crap, but we have to prove that it\u2019s crap by running as progressive populists and servants of the people in districts like this.\u201d<\/p>\n

That means a mix of old-line Democratic concerns like economic security in health care and housing and jobs, but also ending endless wars. \u201cWhen the war in Iran started, I had an influx of 18- and 19-year-olds walking through the door saying we don\u2019t want to go die anywhere around the world,\u201d Lawrence told me. He also offered ideas like expanding the Conservation Reserve Program that pays farmers not to plant near riverbanks that can become contaminated with soil runoff, believing that the issue could be \u201cstrong ground for bipartisanship.\u201d<\/p>\n

He\u2019s drawn upon his work in building coalitions. Lawrence recently held an eight-hour \u201cask me anything\u201d event outside of Barrett\u2019s congressional office in Lansing, standing in for a politician who he says hasn\u2019t ever held an unscripted event. \u201cWe see somebody who would be not just a backbencher but an organizer in Congress,\u201d said Ravi Mangla of the Working Families Party, who characterized the race as a \u201ctop priority.\u201d<\/p>\n

There\u2019s another through line in Lawrence\u2019s agenda: taking on military contractors, corporate polluters, Big Ag, the Epstein class. \u201cPeople don\u2019t trust that Silicon Valley or Wall Street will act for us,\u201d he told the Prospect<\/em>. \u201cThey are fed up and angry with the rich and powerful.\u201d<\/p>\n

LAWRENCE WAS BORN AND RAISED<\/strong> in the Lansing area, but his two opponents do not have deep ties to the district. Brink, who resigned her Ukraine post last year to protest Donald Trump\u2019s policies, describes herself as a \u201csixth-generation Michigander,\u201d but she only recently moved back after 28 years in Washington, and one campaign finance disclosure found that over 90 percent of her donations came from out of state. Brink has three million-dollar D.C.-area investment properties, all of which are leased; Maasdam has one, but his current address and voter registration is in Ann Arbor Township.<\/p>\n

Read more The Court Equivocates on Whom to Deport<\/a><\/p>\n

Trust this University of Michigan graduate when I say that \u201cAnn Arbor resident\u201d is a bad look for someone running for political office in the home district of archrival Michigan State.<\/p>\n

Maasdam and Brink were recruited to Lansing by D.C. establishment groups that have a profile of what a swing-seat frontliner is supposed to look like: veterans, national security officials, and espousers of middle-of-the-road policies. They want a clone of Slotkin, who won here in 2018. For Maasdam, it was the Democratic power brokers at The Bench; for Brink, EMILYs List, though she also has attracted some union support, including from the Michigan Education Association.<\/p>\n

For his part, Lawrence is picking up national progressive support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and the Working Families Party. But more importantly, he has the most local endorsements in the race.<\/p>\n

Brink and Maasdam have biographical ads up highlighting national security experience and ties to President Obama. Maasdam is being boosted by a $750,000 VoteVets ad campaign with similar themes; Brink is getting a smaller amount from a pop-up super PAC called Mid-Michigan Women Win. National Nurses United, one of the country\u2019s most progressive unions, has invested $400,000 in a super PAC for Lawrence.<\/p>\n

Brink and Maasdam are also seemingly trying to lure crypto PACs, a powerful player in recent primaries, into the race. Both completed a questionnaire issued by Stand With Crypto, and according to the organization\u2019s website, \u201cdemonstrated strong support\u201d for digital assets and legislative action. Maasdam went a step further with a tweet last month supporting the CLARITY Act, which would shift federal regulatory jurisdiction of digital assets to the light-touch Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Michigan residents lost $210 million to crypto scams last year.<\/p>\n

Another outside super PAC is attacking Brink for being Trump\u2019s handpicked choice for ambassador to Slovakia in 2019, and for initially defending Trump after his altercation with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. (Brink resigned two months later.)<\/p>\n

Brink has accused Michigan Values PAC, which ran the ad, for falsely using artificial intelligence; the ad includes an image of Trump holding up a picture with Brink\u2019s face on it, seemingly just a stand-in for the nonvisual fact that he nominated her for an ambassadorship. Brink\u2019s bigger claim was that the PAC had coordinated with VoteVets. \u201cMatt Maasdam and his out-of-state, dark money allies are attacking me with AI deepfakes that mislead voters about my proven record standing up to Trump,\u201d she said in a statement.<\/p>\n

In short, the two handpicked establishment candidates are hunting crypto cash and attacking each other\u2014instead of the guy leading the race in most polls.<\/p>\n

\u201cEstablishment Democrats don\u2019t always have their finger on the pulse of who is the right candidate for a district,\u201d Mangla said.<\/p>\n

BRINK AND MAASDAM ARE RUNNING<\/strong> nationalized races that haven\u2019t focused on hyperlocal issues as Lawrence has. And Democratic candidates have been told this year not to raise the ire of powerful AI firms spending tens of millions in primaries. That shows through in the candidates\u2019 approaches to the rising issue of AI data centers.<\/p>\n

Maasdam, on local radio, tried to thread the needle by saying that Michigan should compete for data centers\u2014\u201cIf we don\u2019t participate in these in the way that it\u2019s coming, all those opportunities will go to other states\u201d\u2014while also saying local groups should be protected from electricity price spikes and given full transparency about community impact. The development should be \u201cat least neutral to the environment,\u201d he added. Ultimately, he said, \u201cwe have to do this (and) I want to see this done in the right way.\u201d<\/p>\n

That answer is on every side of the issue and no side, all at once.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Brink said at a campaign forum in mid-June that \u201cdata center proposals should be evaluated locally with environmental safeguards.\u201d Deferring to the locals is a way not to take a position. The cautiousness is deliberate, and it leads to candidates tying themselves in knots.<\/p>\n

Lawrence, by contrast, supports a federal moratorium on data center construction, and he\u2019s stood directly with residents working on that locally. Howell Township, which is in the district, just extended its moratorium. The issue resonates in places like Michigan, where industrial manufacturing once thrived and disruptive warehouse structures that don\u2019t create jobs are being built.<\/p>\n

At the Vevay Township data center public meeting, 120 people from across the political spectrum packed into a room with a capacity of 80\u2014with hundreds more outside. Lawrence read from Pope Leo XIV\u2019s encyclical that called on humanity to \u201cdisarm\u201d artificial intelligence. \u201cPeople who identified themselves as Republicans, they came up to me and shook my hand and said, \u2018You got my vote,\u2019\u201d he told me.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m a candidate that is calling for change,\u201d Lawrence added. \u201cThat\u2019s what people want now on all sides of the political aisle. They don\u2019t think either party will fight for us. I\u2019m the only candidate credible to fight for them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Organized Money: How to Think About AI (with Cory Doctorow)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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