{"id":298,"date":"2026-06-25T10:09:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T10:09:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=298"},"modified":"2026-06-25T10:09:49","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T10:09:49","slug":"lessons-from-an-arctic-gas-pipe-dream","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=298","title":{"rendered":"Lessons From an Arctic Gas Pipe Dream"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Revolving Door Project, a <\/em>Prospect partner, scrutinizes the executive branch and presidential power. Follow them at therevolvingdoorproject.org.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more The SAVE Act Comes for Everything<\/a><\/p>\n

Thawing permafrost, disappearing glaciers, shifting and declining wildlife populations: Alaska, the largest and wildest American state by far, is in a slow-motion climate and ecological crisis at an Alaska-sized scale. Are state and federal politicians dreaming up transformative investments in new infrastructure, enabled by tens of billions in subsidies, that will blaze a new trail for Alaska\u2019s future? Yes, they are!<\/p>\n

Oh, wait\u2014they just want another pipeline. The same pipeline, in fact, that has been a pipe dream of Alaskan officials since the 1980s, but was never built because of its ballooning costs. Alaska LNG would be a massive gas infrastructure project involving a new gas treatment plant and 807-mile pipeline cutting across the state to transport methane gas from near Prudhoe Bay to a new liquefaction plant and export terminal in the south, west of Anchorage. Dropped a decade ago by BP, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil because of its price tag and remote location, it has been kept nominally alive by the state-owned Alaska Gasline Development Corporation. Now, the proposed pipeline has a new developer in Glenfarne, which is also behind yet-unbuilt LNG facilities in Texas and Louisiana.<\/p>\n

Read more from the Revolving Door Project<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

By Glenfarne\u2019s projection, construction of Alaska LNG could cost up to $55 billion. The real cost, if built, is likely to be much higher. A new report from Public Citizen analyzing the final cost of constructing operating LNG terminals in North America found that the average cost overrun was 59.7 percent. LNG Canada, the project most comparable to Alaska LNG for requiring a custom-built pipeline over hundreds of miles of challenging terrain, ran more than 130 percent over budget. As report authors Lois Parshley and Mekedas Belayneh note, \u201cAlaska\u2019s proposed pipeline route traverses a longer distance, and more severe terrain, in a labor market that is structurally thinner [than LNG Canada].\u201d<\/p>\n

Then there is rapidly escalating competition from renewables. Global electricity generated from wind and solar has increased by more than 350 percent since just mid-2020, and surpassed generation from natural gas for the first time in history in April this year. Nations around the world are frantically investing in green energy and industry to defend themselves from energy price shocks; any gas from this pipeline might go begging by the time it\u2019s completed.<\/p>\n

Glenfarne\u2019s CEO has been complaining that Alaska LNG is\u2014surprise!\u2014not economically viable unless the state of Alaska gives the company a $16 billion property tax cut, meaning that Alaskans agree to get less revenue from the project. The municipalities that would be most affected by this loss of tax revenue would be North Slope Borough, where the gas treatment plant would be built, and the Kenai Peninsula Borough, where the export terminal would be built, Cook Inletkeeper energy policy analyst Ben Boettger told me.<\/p>\n

The cumulative impacts of the proposed project, along with the simultaneous push to industrialize rural Alaska through projects like the Ambler Access Road, run the gamut from straining public services to increasing greenhouse gas pollution to disrupting caribou herds by increasing road traffic. One area of particular concern is the impact on the Cook Inlet beluga whales, a genetically distinct and endangered population that rely on echolocation to communicate in the turbid waters of the inlet, and would be significantly affected by an uptick in boat traffic and human noise. Ship traffic in Cook Inlet is projected to increase by 42 to 74 percent if the Alaska LNG export terminal becomes operational.<\/p>\n

\u201cPretty much every day of the year, there could be an LNG tanker moving through the inlet,\u201d said Boettger.<\/p>\n

In a rational world, waiving most of the economic benefit to Alaskans in order to enable an ecologically destructive carbon bomb that primarily serves foreign markets would be a political nonstarter. But Alaska\u2019s governor, Mike Dunleavy, has adopted the industry\u2019s pipe dreams as his own.<\/p>\n

In May, Dunleavy vetoed a bill that would have restored pensions for public employees because legislators failed to approve the tax break he desired for Alaska LNG. Weeks later, by a 34-5 vote, Alaska\u2019s House of Representatives voted to cut state property taxes by 80 to 90 percent over three decades for the pipeline. It now goes to the Senate. The pension bill, meanwhile, is dead for the current session.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fundamental issue here is that because the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation and their partner Glenfarne won\u2019t share or don\u2019t have accurate information, the legislature is basically contemplating tax cuts worth billions of dollars based on back-of-the-napkin math,\u201d said Sean McDermott, energy policy analyst with Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition.<\/p>\n

In addition to this massive state tax break, Alaska LNG would be buoyed by tens of billions in federal subsidies originating under both Presidents Biden and Trump. A recent from Friends of the Earth outlined the many separate subsidies that Alaska LNG could qualify for, including as much as $31 billion in loan guarantees. That massive backstop was made possible by the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law loan guarantees for gas projects to include export projects. Though the pipeline\u2019s proponents like to emphasize that in the first years of operation, Alaska LNG would supply gas domestically, the project would primarily export gas to Asia.<\/p>\n

In 2025, Trump\u2019s spending bill expanded tax credits for carbon capture, enabling Alaska LNG to capture an additional $7.1 billion for doing something that the project would already have to do anyway, which is extracting carbon from the methane gas before transport and liquefaction. Once extracted, that carbon would not be sequestered underground, but used to enable further drilling in Alaska\u2019s North Slope. The 2025 bill increased tax credits for using captured carbon for recovering oil from near-depleted wells to $85 per ton, effectively making additional fossil fuel extraction the most financially rewarding use of captured carbon.<\/p>\n

Read more Military Families Are Going Hungry\u2014and the Numbers Don\u2019t Yet Reflect the War<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have been vocal in their support for getting Alaska LNG off the ground. Wright called it his number one infrastructure priority. Burgum told the press that the Trump administration was looking both to support the project with loans and to help secure investors and facilitate agreements abroad.<\/p>\n

Burgum performs willful ignorance of the existence of batteries and the fact that solar power continues to be the cheapest form of energy, lambasting renewable energy as subsidized and unreliable. Yet he has been all too willing to support a boondoggle like Alaska LNG, precariously propped up on the expensive stilts of tens of billions in handouts.<\/p>\n

What the frantic push to prop up an astronomically expensive project like Alaska LNG\u2014which, again, primarily serves foreign markets\u2014in the name of energy security should reveal is that decarbonization is not a greater investment or risk than doubling down on fossil fuels. But the very fact that there are other energy options is being obscured by the stultifying energy politics of the current administration.<\/p>\n

The Trump-era repeal of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for renewable energy caused Alaska to lose hundreds of millions in direct and indirect clean-energy investment, including $125 million for small-scale rooftop solar in Alaska, a 45-megawatt project that would have been Alaska\u2019s largest-ever solar farm, and major wind projects like Shovel Creek and Little Mount Susitna Wind. Other losses include areas for scientific research. Under Biden, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory had determined that tidal energy could help decarbonize Alaska\u2019s electricity grid. Now, \u201crenewable energy\u201d has been cut from the laboratory\u2019s name, hundreds of employees have been laid off, and Wright has proposed cutting its budget by 52 percent in 2027.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration\u2019s abnegation of scientific innovation, combined with Alaskan legislators\u2019 long-standing deference to fossil fuel interests in the state, makes it difficult to imagine a different energy path. Meanwhile, the state remains on the front lines of climate change\u2013fueled disasters. Alaska is home to an increasing number of climate refugees, including many from indigenous communities displaced by coastal erosion, increased flooding, and intensifying storms like last fall\u2019s devastating Typhoon Halong.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration also bears some responsibility for buoying a project that, left to market forces, would sink like a stone. In attempting to bully foreign countries into buying U.S. LNG exports in order to avoid steeper tariffs, the Trump administration has made crudely visible what has long been a pattern of U.S. officials using energy as a geopolitical cudgel. Within the Biden administration, Alaska LNG\u2019s chief proponents were Rahm Emanuel, then ambassador to Japan, who played a significant role in deprioritizing climate policy within the Obama White House, and Amos Hochstein, former LNG executive and close Biden energy adviser.<\/p>\n

Both Emanuel and Hochstein have track records of downplaying the threat of climate change and treating geopolitical dominance as the primary imperative of U.S. energy policy. Their influence was evident, though not totalizing, within the Biden White House. Friends of the Earth acquired via the Alaska Public Records Act between Samantha Carl-Yoder, lobbyist and former chief of staff to Amos Hochstein, and Frank Richards, president of the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation. According to those emails, President Biden himself uplifted Alaska LNG with Japanese officials (\u201cand I believe the Koreans too,\u201d Carl-Yoder noted).<\/p>\n

By the time the Biden administration came around to recognizing the massive planet-warming potential of the unchecked LNG export boom, Biden\u2019s term was coming to an end. A month before Trump\u2019s inauguration, the Energy Department published a study which concluded that increased LNG exports displaced renewables more than they displaced coal, cumulatively increased greenhouse gases, and raised domestic gas prices.<\/p>\n

Did Biden-era officials who sought to slow-walk decarbonization see the Trump administration\u2019s sprint toward increasing polluting energy sources and rethink the role they played in enabling it? Hardly. Both Hochstein and Emanuel were recently quoted in a New York Times<\/em> article about climate change no longer being a top concern among Democratic political elites. Hochstein, who manages AI and energy strategy at a multinational holding company, scorned \u201cextremist voices on the climate side\u201d who sought to phase out fossil fuels. Emanuel, who is pondering a run for president, said, \u201cI\u2019m not against talking about climate policy, but you\u2019ve got to talk about it as energy and energy prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

Political winds may have shifted against science-based policymaking, but scientific reality remains. Alaska is warming faster than every other U.S. state, and three times faster than the rest of the world. The state\u2019s glaciers have already shrunk by 13 percent, and are projected to lose a majority of their mass by the end of the century. The glaciers\u2019 melting will have profound effects on local communities and land and marine ecosystems, and will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.<\/p>\n

Alaska LNG luridly illustrates that far from being the market\u2019s choice, fossil fuels are heavily publicly subsidized, even before we consider the additional health costs Americans bear from air pollution and a warming climate. The industry receives over $38 billion in direct subsidies and hundreds of billions in indirect subsidies each year. Public officials from Juneau to Washington should be forced to explain why they support the most destructive and expensive energy pathway rather than healthier and more cost-effective clean-energy investment.<\/p>\n

Read more An Unlikely Bipartisan Housing Win<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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