{"id":236,"date":"2026-06-16T18:39:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T18:39:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236"},"modified":"2026-06-16T18:39:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T18:39:43","slug":"aftermath-the-war-ends-and-the-aftermath-begins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236","title":{"rendered":"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n

This story was first featured in the <\/em>Aftermath<\/em> newsletter, a series from David Dayen exploring the economic consequences of the war in Iran. To have these stories delivered to your in-box as soon as they are published, <\/em>sign up for the newsletter here<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Organized Money: Meta Is Dying<\/a><\/p>\n

Welcome to Aftermath, our periodic series on the consequences of the war in Iran. Both combatants in this war are insisting that it has ended. But the series is called Aftermath, and that means it goes on as long as the effects remain, which as you\u2019ll read in this edition should be a while. So if you aren\u2019t getting Aftermath in your email, there\u2019s still time to rectify this. You can sign up at prospect.org\/aftermath.<\/p>\n

Are We Still at War?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

First off: It\u2019s good that bombs are no longer falling on Tehran and across the Gulf. The Iranian economy is a total shambles, and ordinary Iranian people, not the country\u2019s leadership, are bearing the resulting suffering. War is horrible and debilitating and a colossal waste of resources. If a highly produced fiction is what\u2019s needed for peace to break out, give me the fiction.<\/p>\n

So here\u2019s the fiction: As hinted at for weeks, the agreement is nothing more than a deal to make a deal. That makes it highly unstable and dependent on a swarm of details, many yet to come. But the inescapable conclusion is that President Trump is suing for peace after making a disastrous decision to go to war.<\/p>\n

Nobody\u2019s seen the text, and that\u2019s a tell, because judging from all available information, the U.S. gets nothing from this except paying money, some $300 billion, to return to the prewar status quo, and maybe not even that. Iran held out, proved it can control the Strait of Hormuz in the teeth of a combined attack from both the U.S. and Israel, and got virtually everything it wanted.<\/p>\n

The cease-fire extends for 60 days while negotiations begin on Iran\u2019s nuclear program; Iran enters those negotiations knowing its adversary is reluctant to resume the war, especially as the midterms near. Iran \u201creaffirmed\u201d it will not build a nuclear weapon, a mere restatement of the nonproliferation treaty it ratified in 1970. Iran can sell oil on global markets, and will get unfrozen assets and reconstruction funds, though likely through a third party and trickled out after implementation.<\/p>\n

There will be no tolls on the strait, but only for the duration of the agreement, and now we\u2019re hearing that afterward there won\u2019t be tolls but there will be fees in exchange for unspecified \u201cservices provided.\u201d There can\u2019t really be any services except for allowing ships to pass, which is \u2026 a toll. This is legalistic hairsplitting worthy of a Comcast contract, and it shows that Iran maintains operational control of the strait, which it did not have before. Even if Iran makes concessions, they will have to be enforced, and future shipping guaranteed, at the barrel of U.S. guns, tying America to the Middle East forever.<\/p>\n

Trump bombed Iran to get a friendlier regime, stop its support for proxies, and end its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. None of that happened, and Iran got giant new revenue streams, an end to strangling sanctions, and a chance to rebuild its economy in the deal.<\/p>\n

And you know what? Good. A humiliating setback like this could go a long way toward preventing the imperialists from trying to do something like this again. There is a difference between leading the world and dominating the world that neoconservatives will never understand. That the hawks feel the need to leak dissatisfaction in their own government\u2019s deal shows their impotence. I believe in the power of deterrents, and getting smoked by Iran in a war may provide one.<\/p>\n

And if this drives a wedge further between the U.S. and a frankly apocalyptic cult in Israel, all the better. The Israelis are doing everything they can to undermine the agreement by continuing to bomb Lebanon. Trump has criticized Benjamin Netanyahu rhetorically but has yet to tie Lebanon hostilities to denying arms or aid. The world, including the Jewish community, should hope for a breaking point, because Israel\u2019s actions have been morally abominable and strategically catastrophic. Israel demanded this war and ends it in a worse position. Maybe we\u2019ll learn not to follow blind men into a corner.<\/p>\n

Read more California Town Lets Private ICE Detention Centers Police Themselves<\/a><\/p>\n

The Beginning of the End, or the End of the Beginning<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Iran has already said it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the agreement is formally signed on Friday, and the U.S. blockade is on until then as well. The 500 ships still stranded in the Gulf will probably wait longer than that; mines have yet to be cleared, little activity has been reported thus far, and the world\u2019s biggest tanker operator cautioned that until the deal was \u201cmaterial\u201d it made more sense to stay out of the strait. What ships would make a long journey into the strait during this 60-day negotiation period, only to risk getting stranded or coming up empty?<\/p>\n

The most revealing passage I\u2019ve seen about this is from an oil analyst who said that Brent crude oil futures would fall to $80 per barrel by year-end as long as the strait remains open. Brent crude futures are at $80 today<\/em>. The decline in oil futures markets was all predicated on getting to an agreement. Once the agreement is reached, everything\u2019s priced in and oil has nowhere further to fall. That\u2019s bad news for a U.S. consumer paying $4.04 on average for a gallon of gas.<\/p>\n

Gulf countries have found overland routes to get their oil to market, and China reduced consumption by over three million barrels a day, an enormous feat (though we\u2019ll see if it endures). Non-OPEC countries have also boosted output. So the strait doesn\u2019t have to come all the way back to return global oil markets to something approaching normal in the long run.<\/p>\n

The world needs a massive oversupply<\/em> to reach normalcy in the summer months. Inventories are so low right now; there are 21 million barrels left at the storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, and you cannot go much further below that or you start hitting sludge at the bottom of the tanks. There\u2019s barely any potential boost from global strategic petroleum reserves, which are at historic lows. This suggests that prices will go up, not down, over the next few months as holiday travelers compete with nations looking to rebuild their reserves for a still-limited oil supply. Any Iranian \u201cfees,\u201d as well as increased shipping insurance premiums, get added onto the cost.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the fact that some of the supply shock came not from an inability to transit the strait, but from real damage to Gulf facilities in Kuwait, Iraq\u2019s southern fields, and Qatar, particularly that country\u2019s liquefied natural gas facilities, which could take years to repair.<\/p>\n

What I was told at the beginning of the war is that every week of the strait\u2019s closure would mean a month of fixing on the back end. We had 15 weeks, putting us into next fall before things get untangled. That\u2019s if nothing goes wrong in the interim. And since Iran proved it can close the strait, volatility will spike anytime it makes a credible threat.<\/p>\n

Some are calling this the \u201cHormuz hangover.\u201d I think it\u2019s a signal that, as Nathan Tankus wrote, the primary crises of the 21st century are supply bottlenecks. This is the third major shock in the last six years (COVID and the Ukraine war being the others), climate shocks are ever-present, and geopolitics isn\u2019t getting any easier. Resiliency is needed now more than ever. The Trump administration chasing off electric vehicles and waging war on renewables is just about the dumbest strategy imaginable, building an island around the United States at a moment of energy transition that holds us in the past. In 50 years, if the U.S. looks like a version of Cuba, limping along with old technology as the world surpasses, this was the moment when it began.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading. If you have tips or ideas for future stories, let us know! You can email us at <\/mark><\/em>aftermath@prospect.org<\/em><\/mark>.<\/mark><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Fox Solves Its \u2018Death of Cable\u2019 Problem by Buying the Modern Cable Box<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


\n
\n
\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This story was first featured in the Aftermath newsletter, a series from David Dayen exploring the economic consequences of the war in Iran. To have these stories delivered to your in-box as soon as they are published, sign up for the newsletter here. Read more Organized Money: Meta Is Dying Welcome to Aftermath, our periodic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":235,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[118],"class_list":["post-236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy-and-the-environment","tag-tagged-aftermath-america-and-the-world-donald-trump-economic-policy-energy-the-environment-foreign-policy-iran-israel-palestine-middle-east"],"yoast_head":"\nAftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins - Frontier Housing Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins - Frontier Housing Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This story was first featured in the Aftermath newsletter, a series from David Dayen exploring the economic consequences of the war in Iran. To have these stories delivered to your in-box as soon as they are published, sign up for the newsletter here. Read more Organized Money: Meta Is Dying Welcome to Aftermath, our periodic […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Frontier Housing Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-16T18:39:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247\"},\"headline\":\"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-16T18:39:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236\"},\"wordCount\":1431,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp\",\"keywords\":[\"Tagged: Aftermath,\u00a0America and the World,\u00a0Donald Trump,\u00a0Economic Policy,\u00a0Energy & the Environment,\u00a0foreign policy,\u00a0Iran,\u00a0Israel-Palestine,\u00a0Middle East,\u00a0ocean shipping\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Energy and the Environment\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236\",\"name\":\"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins - Frontier Housing Report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-16T18:39:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":1333},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?p=236#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Frontier Housing Report\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/frontierhousingreport.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins - Frontier Housing Report","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins - Frontier Housing Report","og_description":"This story was first featured in the Aftermath newsletter, a series from David Dayen exploring the economic consequences of the war in Iran. To have these stories delivered to your in-box as soon as they are published, sign up for the newsletter here. Read more Organized Money: Meta Is Dying Welcome to Aftermath, our periodic […]","og_url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236","og_site_name":"Frontier Housing Report","article_published_time":"2026-06-16T18:39:43+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#\/schema\/person\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247"},"headline":"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins","datePublished":"2026-06-16T18:39:43+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236"},"wordCount":1431,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp","keywords":["Tagged: Aftermath,\u00a0America and the World,\u00a0Donald Trump,\u00a0Economic Policy,\u00a0Energy & the Environment,\u00a0foreign policy,\u00a0Iran,\u00a0Israel-Palestine,\u00a0Middle East,\u00a0ocean shipping"],"articleSection":["Energy and the Environment"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236","url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236","name":"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins - Frontier Housing Report","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp","datePublished":"2026-06-16T18:39:43+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#\/schema\/person\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/05c5c8c770d9807896f2c0199b3d4f20.webp","width":2000,"height":1333},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=236#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Aftermath: The War Ends and the Aftermath Begins"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/","name":"Frontier Housing Report","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/#\/schema\/person\/13a8c63a4bd3b73600b541c1532fc247","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com"],"url":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}