{"id":212,"date":"2026-06-12T10:09:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T10:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=212"},"modified":"2026-06-12T10:09:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T10:09:34","slug":"aftermath-the-economy-is-propped-up-by-government-spending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=212","title":{"rendered":"Aftermath: The Economy Is Propped Up by Government Spending"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This story was first featured in the <\/em>Aftermath<\/em> newsletter, a series from David Dayen exploring the economic consequences of the war in Iran. To have these stories delivered to your in-box as soon as they are published, <\/em>sign up for the newsletter here<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more New Documents Detail Nine-Figure, Silicon Valley\u2013Funded Abundance Movement<\/a><\/p>\n

Welcome to Aftermath, our periodic series on the consequences of the war in Iran. Today\u2019s edition is about why those consequences have been relatively muted: One answer is we are running historic government deficits that are dragging the economy to the finish line. If you aren\u2019t getting Aftermath in your email, you can sign up at prospect.org\/aftermath.<\/p>\n

Are We Still at War?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

As of the beginning of this week, the president of the United States has stated on 37 separate occasions that we were just about ready to sign a deal to end the war. That\u2019s 37 different times the markets reacted by boosting stocks and lowering oil prices, 37 different times that investors breathed sighs of relief, and likely 37 different times that cronies of the president who knew he was blowing smoke got to take profits.<\/p>\n

We haven\u2019t totally dispensed with this tomfoolery; statement number 38 came on Thursday afternoon, with claims that deal points had been \u201capproved by all parties.\u201d But the man who found negotiations on a cease-fire \u201cvery boring\u201d has spent the past two days attacking Iran with Tomahawk missiles, and receiving fire back in response. We are now \u201cnegotiating with bombs,\u201d in the parlance of Pete Hegseth. The latest is that President Trump has threatened a seizure of Kharg Island, Iran\u2019s primary oil export terminal, which could only be done with ground troops.<\/p>\n

Trump can\u2019t negotiate an end to the war because the outcome will reveal that he lost. Everyone knows that a framework deal to free up frozen assets in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz trades something we already had (open seas) for something Iran wants (unfrozen assets). Trump blathered about \u201cpallets of cash\u201d given to Iran under Barack Obama, and he can\u2019t give Iran pallets of cash now to get out of his mistake. So here come the bombs.<\/p>\n

Airstrikes failed to bend Iran\u2019s will before, and I feel confident saying that none will work now. If the president wants to put American troops in harm\u2019s way during an unpopular war with scant popular support, I\u2019d say that Republican Hill staff should start polishing their r\u00e9sum\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

The Trump Stimulus<\/strong><\/h3>\n

On Wednesday, Trump boasted about a \u201csecret mission\u201d that extracted stranded ships in the Persian Gulf in the dead of night, bringing millions of barrels of oil to where it was needed. First of all, this secret mission was not at all secret\u2014it was publicly discussed in The New York Times<\/em> two weeks ago. Second, the mission, which involves steering commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, has according to the military\u2019s own count successfully moved 200 ships. In a normal month, 3,000 ships traverse the strait.<\/p>\n

This is why crude oil stocks, including in the U.S. despite all the fracking and tapping of strategic petroleum reserves, are dropping precipitously, which portends an eventual, catastrophic price spike. It\u2019s why global food supply is also expected to shrink, as fertilizer and fuel costs rise. (Even as prices for urea, a key fertilizer input, have crashed in the U.S. because of demand destruction after the spring planting season, indicators like wheat futures are signaling higher costs.) It\u2019s why annual inflation is now above 4 percent, with the Producer Price Index, which tracks inputs, at 6.5 percent. It\u2019s why prices are sharply outpacing wages, taking real wage gains in the second Trump administration all the way to zero, and it\u2019s why workers are increasingly tapping personal savings and even 401(k) balances to keep up.<\/p>\n

If all of that is true, why has the U.S. economy not fallen off a cliff? Runaway inflation and dwindling savings can kill an economy that relies heavily on consumer spending. But consumer spending has been holding up relatively well. Inflation can really hamper job growth. But the last jobs report surprised to the upside, and the trend is much improved since a flat winter. Stocks have certainly been manipulated by all the fake cease-fire talk, but overall the trend is positive. What exactly is going on?<\/p>\n

There are a few different explanations. Weaker reliance on fossil fuels, led by dramatically lower Chinese imports, could be one factor. The AI hyperscaler boom could be driving investor confidence at least, even if data center delays are messing with the grand design. And the K-shaped economy might be playing a role: The wealthy\u2019s portfolios are still doing fine, they account for nearly half of all consumer spending, and their wallets are still open.<\/p>\n

But there could be another, less-discussed factor: enormous, if quiet, support from the government sector.<\/p>\n

Read more Feds Deport ICE Detainee Organizer to Ecuador<\/a><\/p>\n

According to the Joint Economic Committee, the U.S. government has run a $1.246 trillion deficit through May. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by the end of fiscal year 2026, the annual deficit will hit $1.9 trillion. For context, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act\u2014the Obama stimulus\u2014spent $787 billion. The American Rescue Plan\u2014the Biden stimulus\u2014was about $1.9 trillion. (Some of that money was unspent and later clawed back.) The CARES Act\u2014the Trump-signed legislation at the height of COVID to let Americans stay home for months\u2014was around $2 trillion.<\/p>\n

In other words, this fiscal year we are spending the equivalent of the largest economic stimulus packages in American history. It\u2019s a hugely inefficient stimulus, funneled toward rich people, the military-industrial complex, and a mass abduction and deportation program more than anything else, while continuing to enable the astronomical waste in the U.S. health care system. But it\u2019s still stimulus, and when you dump all of that money into the economy, it\u2019s probably going to at least accidentally create spending, jobs, and investment.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, the fact that so much of the money is going to the already rich, who tend to save and invest their money rather than spend it, may help explain why the stock market keeps going up and up. Rich people are also the ones who tend to buy government debt, and these days they are paid a lot of money for doing so. Inequality is increased coming and going.<\/p>\n

Another thing that government stimulus can do, of course, is raise prices. Mountains of ink were spilled about whether the Biden ARP, which was passed in the context of economic stagnation and pain coming out of the pandemic, caused the later bout of inflation. I\u2019ve seen literally none of this conjecture regarding the similar-sized deficit spending of the Trump administration. But it\u2019s probably contributing in some measure to inflation, along with the Iran supply shock and tariff uncertainty. It\u2019s at the very least something that will make inflation much harder to bring down in the future.<\/p>\n

Remember also that Trump entered office on a vow of handing over the government to Elon Musk and his band of traveling adolescents to make everything more efficient and stop the endless piling up of government debt. All that efficiency led to one of the highest annual deficits in the history of the United States.<\/p>\n

I am just about the furthest thing from a deficit hawk and have gone to war with deficit hawks repeatedly over my career. I\u2019ve heard the arguments about a debt crisis from people I respect and I\u2019m not completely moved by them, though the higher-interest-rate environment is certainly making things more challenging.<\/p>\n

But I do think that the current environment is unsustainable, if only because Republican scolds are likely to use these deficits as a rationale not for rolling back tax giveaways to the wealthy but to cut safety-net programs for the poor as much as possible. The recent Social Security Trustees Report showing that the social insurance program will be unable to pay full benefits by 2032 is another data point that will be seized upon in this manner. We are more likely to respond to warnings of a debt crisis with painful spending cuts.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a tension here between massive deficits being a primary crutch for the economy and the party in power wanting to slash the most effective anti-poverty programs in the name of pretending to cut the deficit. Military and paramilitary Keynesianism isn\u2019t going to last. And it\u2019s putting Democrats in an impossible position if they continue playing footsie with a tax cut agenda.<\/p>\n

It also isn\u2019t fated to work forever. Supply shortages and inflation accelerating in multiple ways will eventually take down even a stimulus-based economy. There\u2019s something that feels very Turkish about it.<\/p>\n

Links<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Gas prices are going to get worse. (Washington Post<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Food and fuel inflation typically triggers global unrest. (Vox)<\/p>\n

The Iranian economy has been battered by the war. (Drop Site News)<\/p>\n

Supply chain logistics costs are rising. (Mish Talk)<\/p>\n

Same with aluminum. (Wall Street Journal<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading. If you have tips or ideas for future stories, let us know! You can email us at <\/mark><\/em>aftermath@prospect.org<\/em><\/mark>.<\/mark><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Trump and Putin: When Delusional Idiots Go to War<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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