{"id":146,"date":"2026-06-03T09:43:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T09:43:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=146"},"modified":"2026-06-03T09:43:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T09:43:24","slug":"the-return-of-the-dixiecrat-south","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=146","title":{"rendered":"The Return of the Dixiecrat South"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<div>\n<p>It has been just one month since the 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court effectively nullified Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), making it lawful for states to draw congressional districts that systematically dilute the votes of Black and Latino Americans. Within hours, Southern states responded. Florida legislators passed a GOP gerrymander the day the decision was announced. Alabama moved to eliminate majority-minority districts even after primary-election votes had been cast, though an appellate court has temporarily blocked the state from proceeding. South Carolina sought to gerrymander out of existence the district that has elected the state\u2019s only Black congressman, civil rights icon James Clyburn. In Tennessee, the district representing Memphis\u2014majority-Black\u2014was cracked into three, all now majority-white, all expected to turn red.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=144\">Aftermath: Something Is Going to Snap<\/a><\/p>\n<p>One certain consequence of <em>Louisiana v. Callais<\/em> is widely recognized: Millions of voters of color will no longer be able to elect a representative of their choice, while Republicans will lock down an even larger share of congressional seats. But what\u2019s at stake is far bigger: whether voters of color can elect legislators whose votes actually reflect their policy preferences. We know this because we examined nearly 20 years of congressional votes and the survey responses of more than half a million Black, Latino, Asian American, and white voters who were asked if they supported high-profile congressional bills, ranging from the authorization of the war in Iraq to the Affordable Care Act to the early COVID response.<\/p>\n<p>What we found shows how much our democracy\u2019s responsiveness has depended on the VRA\u2014and how much will be lost without it.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>As Memphis Goes, So Goes the South<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Memphis bears witness to both the achievement and the reversal. For 19 years, one man has represented the majority-Black district encompassing Memphis. A progressive stalwart ranked the fifth most effective Democratic lawmaker in the House by the Center for Effective Lawmaking, he secured passage of the first formal congressional apology for slavery and brought home $69 million in community projects, including $3.15 million to restore the Historic Clayborn Temple\u2014the organizing headquarters of the 1968 sanitation workers\u2019 strike that brought Martin Luther King Jr. to Memphis for the last time.<\/p>\n<p>The name of this revered member of Congress? Steve Cohen, a white Jewish civil rights lawyer. Tennessee Republicans did not gerrymander Memphis to remove a Black legislator. They did it to disempower Black voters.<\/p>\n<p><em>Callais<\/em> will have similarly devastating consequences for the substantive representation of voters of color throughout the South. It will not only reduce the chance that they have champions like Steve Cohen in Congress; it will also increase the chance that policies they oppose become law and policies they support don\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>The figure below illustrates how representation in the House works today. Each dot represents a congressional district, with its position on the y-axis showing how well the average Black constituent is represented relative to the average white constituent in that same district. Values above zero mean Black Americans are better represented than white Americans; values below zero mean the opposite. The red and black curves trace the average relationship between this measure and the share of residents of each district who are Black, separately for non-Southern (red) and Southern (black) states.<\/p>\n<p>Note how different the slopes of the lines are. Outside the South, Black Americans achieve representational parity with White Americans once they make up roughly 7 percent of a district\u2019s population\u2014a relatively low threshold that most districts can meet without race-conscious districting. In the South, however, Black Americans are systematically <em>worse<\/em> represented than white Americans when Black residents constitute less than about 40 percent of a district\u2019s population. Put another way, in the very region where the VRA\u2019s protections were most needed and most consequential, Black Americans require districts in which they make up a near-majority of voters before their preferences receive equal weight in Washington.<\/p>\n<p>This is why the VRA has been so important. If Republican-controlled states throughout the South can now crack Black communities into districts where they constitute less than 40 percent of each district\u2019s population, they can essentially silence Black voices in the region.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Party Matters<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>What makes the difference in districts with large Black populations? The answer is simple: They elect Democrats. Black Americans see their preferences reflected in their representative\u2019s votes about 72 percent of the time when represented by a Democrat, but only 39 percent of the time when represented by a Republican. In other words, Black constituents lose a third more often on salient policy debates when the letter after a member of Congress\u2019s name is an R rather than a D.<\/p>\n<p>Black Americans are most affected by <em>Callais<\/em>, because of their concentration in the South and because of the grim history that helps explain that concentration. However, we find the same pattern for Latino and Asian American voters. Latino voters win on policy 66 percent of the time when represented by a Democrat compared with 45 percent when represented by a Republican. For Asian American voters, the win rates are 67 percent vs. 47 percent. For white constituents, by contrast, the gap is modest. And, in fact, they also do better when Democrats represent them\u2014about three percentage points better, on average (58 percent vs. 55 percent).<\/p>\n<p>This partisan effect is not entirely about Black, Latino, and Asian voters being more strongly Democratic, though that\u2019s an important part of it. We find smaller but still significant effects when we take into account each voter\u2019s party identification. When represented by a Republican, for example, Black Republicans are more poorly represented than are white Republicans. Indeed, even in so-called split delegations in the Senate, where one senator is a Democrat and the other a Republican, Democrats better represent voters of color, despite the fact that both senators are representing the same electorate overall.<\/p>\n<p>For voters of color, then, <em>who<\/em> represents them is not just a matter of \u201cidentity politics.\u201d It has direct, measurable consequences for whether their policy preferences are reflected in Washington. Cohen\u2019s 19 years in Congress were 19 years in the 72 percent column for Black Memphians. The new Republican districts will put them in the 39 percent column.<\/p>\n<p>This district-level story adds up. When we examine overall policy outcomes\u2014whether voters of color get more of what they want from government\u2014the partisan gap is stark. When Democrats control the presidency or Congress, and especially when they control both, Black, Latino, and Asian voters win on policy at least as often as white voters. When Republicans are in control, Black voters lose seven to nine percentage points more often than their white counterparts. Latino and Asian voters face similar gaps under Republican control, losing four to seven percentage points more often than white voters. Meanwhile, white voters\u2019 overall win rates barely change regardless of which party controls government (though, of course, different white voters win in each case).<\/p>\n<p>The upshot of all this is that racial gaps in overall policy responsiveness\u2014whether the bills that citizens support become law\u2014are surprisingly small. Aggregating our results across the nearly 20 years we examine, Black, Latino, Asian, and white voters all win just under half the time. Given that there\u2019s actually a lot of agreement among these groups, this low level of congressional responsiveness to voters\u2019 wishes\u2014odds of winning slightly worse than a coin flip\u2014offers a dismaying verdict on the capacity of our lawmaking system to do what citizens want. But it provides a reassuring verdict about the capacity of that system to equally respond to major racial and ethnic groups.<\/p>\n<p>Or rather, it would if Democrats had an equal shot at winning power in the future. Our finding of relative equality hinges on the fact that Democrats controlled the presidency and Senate for more of the period we studied (2006 to 2022) than Republicans did. Remove the VRA\u2019s guarantee of Democratic representation in majority-Black Southern districts, and that balance tips even more away from the public\u2019s preferences.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=142\">How California Politics Became So Blah<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In the post-<em>Callais<\/em> world, Republicans can confidently do what they\u2019re already doing in Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee\u2014draw new lines that eliminate majority-minority districts and merge Black and Latino voters into majority-white, Republican-leaning districts. Cook Political Report estimates Republicans will net five to seven House seats from the redistricting wars of 2026\u2014enough, potentially, to hold the House even in a difficult political environment for the GOP. And even if the blue wave is big enough to clear that wall in 2026, as widely forecast, Republicans expect to be able to lock in an even bigger advantage in future elections, particularly after new census numbers shift more congressional seats to states they control.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Specter of the Senate<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>What will that future look like? In her blistering dissent in <em>Callais<\/em>, Justice Elena Kagan declared that Section 2 is now \u201call but a dead letter\u201d and predicted the consequences would be \u201cfar-reaching and grave.\u201d Our research allows us to say exactly how far-reaching and grave those consequences could be. We can sum up our dismal forecast in two words: the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>The Senate offers a sobering preview of what a world without VRA protections might look like. It\u2019s a preview because even with the VRA in place there has been no redistricting in the Senate. State governments do not get to redraw their states\u2019 borders. Because Senate constituencies are entire states, voters of color cannot be concentrated into majority-minority constituencies in the same way they have been in the House. And because states are usually much larger than districts, there are very few in which whites are not the largest group\u2014and none of those states are in the South.<\/p>\n<p>When it comes to the representation of voters of color in recent decades, the House and Senate look very different. The House has performed well on this metric\u2014again, because of the VRA. The Senate, not so much. And the Senate is much more often decisive in the lawmaking process, given the supermajority threshold of the filibuster, so unequal representation there matters a lot.<\/p>\n<p>The contrast for Black voters is particularly striking. They are not only less well represented by their senators than by their House members; their representation actually worsens as the Black share of a state\u2019s population grows. Yes, the more Black voters there are in a state relative to white voters, the worse Black voters are represented relative to white voters. That\u2019s the opposite of what democratic theory would predict, and it\u2019s why Black voters are much more likely to be represented by Republican senators than by Republican House members. And all this is much more pronounced in South, where the majority of Black Americans live.<\/p>\n<p>We are not certain why having a larger presence in a state causes Black Americans to receive worse Senate representation. But strong evidence points to a familiar suspect: racial resentment. Racial resentment describes prejudicial white attitudes that are more socially acceptable than unvarnished racism\u2014for example, that Black Americans get special favors they don\u2019t deserve. A huge body of research has studied these attitudes and how they\u2019re activated by a sense of threat in places with large and growing racial \u201cout-groups.\u201d They\u2019re also measured in many surveys, allowing us to develop precise measures of average racial resentment by state.<\/p>\n<p>The figure below helps explain why larger Black populations generate poorer representation. There are two panels, one for the House (left) and one for the Senate (right). The y-axis is our familiar ratio of Black to white representation, with lower numbers indicating a greater imbalance in favor of white constituents. Finally, the x-axis in this chart is the average level of white racial resentment in the state. So the slopes of the lines show how this imbalance changes as the level of white racial resentment in a state or district increases.<\/p>\n<p>And what becomes immediately clear is that the South and the Senate are distinct. In Southern House districts, the line slopes down\u2014greater racial resentment, poorer Black representation\u2014but not all that steeply. Now look at the Senate. Even outside the South, greater racial resentment produces poorer Black representation. But the line is much steeper, and racial resentment much higher on average, in the South. In Southern states with the highest racial resentment scores, Republican senators side with white constituents\u2019 policy preferences roughly 20 percentage points more often than they do with Black constituents\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Larger Black populations, it turns out, also generate greater white backlash, and that backlash appears to shape how Republican senators vote. In South Carolina, Rep. James Clyburn, long a fixture in both Southern Democratic politics and national Black politics, vowed last month, \u201cNo matter how the lines are drawn, where they are, I\u2019m going to run for re-election.\u201d But if his district is redrawn, we can expect the electorate he or his successor faces to look similar to the one that elected Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. That electorate might elect a Black man\u2014South Carolina\u2019s second senator is Republican Tim Scott\u2014but it is vanishingly unlikely to elect a Democrat. And that means Clyburn\u2019s constituents will go from having a member of Congress whose votes put him well above the zero line to one who, like Scott as well as Graham, is well below it.<\/p>\n<p>In the majority opinion in <em>Callais<\/em>, Justice Samuel Alito confidently proclaimed that \u201cvast social change throughout the country and particularly in the South\u201d has made the old VRA framework obsolete. Our data says otherwise. The South has changed enormously\u2014because of the VRA, the civil rights movement, and decades of hard organizing. But the underlying dynamics that made the VRA necessary have not disappeared. And without it, Republicans can racially gerrymander new majority-white districts to make the House of the future look very much like the Senate of today.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Movement of the Moment<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>On May 15, Steve Cohen teared up as he announced he could not run again for the seat he\u2019d held for nearly 20 years. He was not crying about losing office; he was crying about his constituents losing power. The sanitation workers who organized at the temple he\u2019d helped restore had joined together to make their voices heard. The VRA helped translate that collective power into political representation\u2014enough that a white Jewish congressman could spend two decades delivering for Black Tennesseans. Now that representation is being dismantled.<\/p>\n<p>The protections of the VRA helped make American democracy more democratic. When Congress is less responsive to voters of color, it is less responsive to all Americans who share those voters\u2019 preferences\u2014on health care, wages, civil rights, and much more. Over the nearly two decades we studied, gains for Black, Latino, and Asian voters didn\u2019t come at the expense of white voters. The periods when representation was more equal were periods of greater responsiveness to all racial groups. Representation is not a zero-sum game.<\/p>\n<p>Restoring these protections will require that a responsive Congress end the partisan mapmaking that <em>Callais<\/em> has now made more dangerous. A national redistricting law establishing independent commissions would undo much of the damage\u2014even if those commissions don\u2019t take race into account. That\u2019s because, according to careful analyses, compact districts that ensure roughly party-proportional outcomes will also ensure voters of color have a fair chance to elect representatives of their choice. Callais is not a blow for color blindness; it\u2019s a blow against equal representation.<\/p>\n<p>A proportional voting system would address the underlying structural problem more directly, though the road to its adoption is much steeper. And multimember districts that use ranked-choice voting or similar proportional representation rules would allow smaller groups sharing common interests, whether based on race or ethnicity or another common bond, to have a much better shot at gaining representation than they do in our current system.<\/p>\n<p>Our research shows that the VRA propelled our nation\u2019s progress toward political equality. Although that progress is now at risk, the fight to defend it is far from over. Three weeks after South Carolina Republicans moved to eliminate Clyburn\u2019s district, organized resistance helped persuade the state Senate to reject the plan. The kind of mobilization that won the VRA in the first place will be needed to make equal representation possible again. Whatever the path forward, it should be illuminated by evidence about how representation really works as well as by the light of justice.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=140\">Organized Money: Why Farmers and Filmmakers Both Face Monopoly<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><br \/>\n<!-- .entry-footer --><br \/>\n<!-- .author-bio --><br \/>\n<!-- .author-bio --><br \/>\n<!-- .author-bio --><br \/>\n<!-- .author-bio --><br \/>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Millions of voters of color will no longer be able to elect a representative of their choice. But what\u2019s at stake is far bigger: whether voters of color can elect legislators whose votes actually reflect their policy preferences.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":145,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[71],"class_list":["post-146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-tagged-american-south-law-justice-politics-race-ethnicity-redistricting-supreme-court-voting-rights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Return of the Dixiecrat South - Frontier Housing Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/frontierhousingreport.com\/?p=146\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Return of the Dixiecrat South - Frontier Housing Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Millions of voters of color will no longer be able to elect a representative of their choice. 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